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Writer's pictureMatthew Kerner

When life gives you deserts, make green energy

Just Deserts

Sitting on the African coastline of the South Atlantic Ocean is the nation of Namibia—one of the largest countries in Southern Africa by area and one of the least densely populated countries in the world. The latter fact comes at no surprise to those familiar with the unique climate of the nation; around 92% of Namibia is defined as very-arid, arid, or semi-arid, and is home to the Namib Desert along its western coast, as well as a large part of the Kalahari in the east. The high prevalence of hot and dry biomes across the country contributes to very low amounts of precipitation (compared to an annual global average of 100 cm of precipitation depth, Namibia experienced only 28cm in 2022) and, as a result, large portions of the population are concentrated in a handful of major cities, or in rural communities along the better watered northern border.

Population density map for Namibia (2010)


For a country named after a desert and features the Sun on its flag, Namibians have long been accustomed to thriving in these sorts of extreme conditions. However, as the national government looks for ways to diversify its economy, and with global warming trends expected to disproportionately impact Africa and the Global South, the country’s abundance of arid land may serve as a major obstacle to Namibia’s future development. Thankfully, as the energy transition creates new global industries and markets, the hot, dry, and vast Namibian landscape can also enable opportunities for growth, giving the country new pathways to monetize its arid environment.


Source: koppen

Shifting Sands

Although the Namib Desert is considered one of the world’s oldest arid climates (dating back at least 55 million years), the country of Namibia is still considered one of the world’s youngest. The nation achieved its independence in 1990 as a result of years of opposition to the apartheid rule of South Africa. 


Despite only 1% of land being arable, Namibia has managed to continuously improve their national poverty rate since becoming a sovereign state, dropping it from 38% in 2003 to 17% in 2015. A majority of this improvement can be attributed to a strong mining sector that has leveraged the abundance of diamonds, gold, and uranium in Namibia to make them top exports for the country. However, even with the Namibian economy continuing to grow at a strong pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, the country still maintains one of the largest disparities between the rich and the poor anywhere in the world (sitting only behind South Africa on the World Bank’s Gini ranking for income inequality). This inequality stems from a variety of factors, including unequal access to post-secondary education, especially for those from poorer, rural communities, and a lack of jobs created for unskilled workers. 

Two figures that highlight a) the minor change in Namibia's Gini (inequality) coefficient and b) Namibia's high inequality compared to the rest of the world

Source: World Bank

Additionally, an incomplete transition from apartheid has resulted in 70% of commercial farmland being owned by Namibians of European descent, as opposed to 16% controlled by black Namibians. To combat this, administrations have focused on implementing land restitution and reform programs as well as attempting to spur job creation; but considering the relatively small improvement in the country’s Gini score since 2001, it’s clear there is much room for improvement. Unfortunately for the people of Namibia, especially those already impoverished, there is another form of inequality that is working against them—climate change inequality.


Despite heavy mining activity in the country and containing around 0.03% of the world’s population, Namibia is only responsible for 0.01% of global emissions. However, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), as global warming continues due to human activity elsewhere in the world, the rise in African temperatures will outpace the rise in the global average (across three assumptions of 1.5℃, 2℃, and 4℃ of global warming). The IPCC also estimates that in a 2℃ scenario of global warming, Namibia would experience increased aridity and droughts (already the most damaging natural hazard in the country) and even less precipitation throughout the year than it already has. 

A graphic from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report outlining the expected impacts on Africa from global climate change.

Source: IPCC

These changes would have severe impacts on the agriculture sector, which roughly 70% of the nation rely on for their livelihoods. Despite contributing less than 10% to national GDP (a testament to the high levels of wealth disparity in the country), almost half of all rural Namibians rely on rain-fed crops for subsistence by using them to feed themselves and their livestock. If temperatures were to rise and precipitation were to fall as estimated by the IPCC, this would make the already difficult act of sustaining agriculture in a dry climate almost impossible, severely compromising food security.


As Namibia looks ahead to its future, it’s clear that being able to reduce global emissions in a manner that also creates local jobs would be a great step forward on both its development as a nation and its efforts to reduce its vulnerability against climate change—so how does being in a desert help?


A “Sol”ver Lining

If there is one thing a desert is good at doing, it’s being exposed to the Sun. With this key characteristic, it is no surprise to learn that some of the world’s largest solar panel installations are in or near deserts. For an arid country like Namibia, who imports ~80% of its electricity from neighbouring countries, the development of solar plants is a major opportunity to cost-effectively increase the renewable power supply and to improve national energy security. Since 2015, Namibia has already had a near-10x increase in the annual amount of solar electricity produced, which is also paired with the gradual decrease in gas-fired emissions over the same timeframe. 

A graph highlighting sources of power generation in Namibia; since 2015, solar has become a major contributor to the nation's energy mix


However, it is not the emissions from inside the country that will cause problems with climate change, and unless the price falls significantly to store solar power in batteries that can be shipped across the world, simply leveraging the power of the sun to make electricity won’t enable Namibia to reverse the course of global warming. Realizing this, that’s when the Namibian government turned their attention to hydrogen. 


"Either we sit back and we let you guys try to decarbonize your factories, or we also use the natural resources at our disposal, our great wind or great sun or minerals, to proactively contribute to reducing this existential threat to our people," were the words spoken by Namibia’s Green Hydrogen Commissioner, James Mnyupe, referencing the growing demand for green hydrogen (combustible hydrogen gas that is produced from renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind) and his country’s potential to meet this demand. As grey hydrogen (produced via natural gas) is forecasted to be phased out for cleaner sources of molecules, and additional industries begin to use hydrogen as a clean, combustible fuel, Namibia is prepared to take a chance on investments in green hydrogen production within the nation. The first commercial green hydrogen plant is already under construction by the Cleanergy project, a joint venture between local firms and a Belgian shipping company that aims to develop a 10 hectare solar farm to power a 5MW hydrogen electrolyser. In combination with the ideal arid biomes of Namibia, the project site also references its large swaths of uninhabited land, its coastal location and ports and political support for hydrogen development as key factors for choosing the country for this endeavour. 

Process diagram that highlights the production, conversion, distribution and end-uses of green hydrogen in the global energy mix


Leveraging these same attributes has also encouraged the national government to take an ownership stake in another hydrogen/ammonia production facility in early stages of development—Hyphen—which is expected to be magnitudes larger than Cleanergy. At an investment valued at US$10B dollars (which falls below Namibia’s yearly GDP of US$13B in 2022), Hyphen would contain a two-phase installation of 7GW of solar and wind power capacity and 3GW of hydrogen electrolyser, with infrastructure being developed that could enable future scale-up by a factor of 10. Even with just the first two phases, the facility would turn Namibia into a net-exporter of energy, and could also supply excess clean power to the grid, reducing reliance on foreign power providers. The facility will also create 13,500 new jobs in construction for Namibians, as well as 2,700 permanent roles during operations, directly contributing to the regional economy and allowing Namibians to reap the financial benefits generated by their natural resources.

Rendering of the electrolyser plants planned for the Hyphen Hydrogen Energy project

Source: hyphenafrica

Time will tell how lucrative the hydrogen market will be for the 34-year old nation, as hydrogen supply chains continue to develop and other international suppliers enter the space. But until then, the value proposition is clear: these desert solar facilities allow Namibia to leverage their geographical advantages to create an economy-changing industry that generates energy exports that can decarbonize polluting industries world-wide.


As Namibia transitions out of colonial and apartheid rule and continues to look for ways to modernize its economy, could the diamond in the rough for the mineral-abundant nation actually be the “rough” itself?



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