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Should the Caribbean Dig Deep to Decarbonize?

Writer's picture: Matthew Kerner Matthew Kerner

Updated: Nov 24, 2024

Every sovereign Caribbean state has ratified the Paris Climate Agreement and has submitted a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that aligns national commitments with international targets on climate change for 2030, 2050, and beyond. Through these NDCs, Caribbean countries have established various goals to reduce their annual national emissions, with many pledging to increase the share of renewables in their energy mix as part of their climate strategy. For the climate conscious, these commitments signal the beginning of the region’s transition away from a heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels; but how will they get there?


Source: Ember

Not So Slick

As seen above, data shows only Suriname—a country in mainland South America with access to biofuel and hydropower—has managed to generate more than 50% of their annual electricity from clean sources (defined by Ember as power from hydro, biofuels, nuclear, wind, solar and other renewable sources). Belize is the only other nation that achieved more than 25% (another continental country with similar renewable energy sources), with the rest of the region using fossil fuels for at least three-quarters of annual power generation. In a region with only a handful of petroleum resources, this means a majority of primary energy use is sourced to imported fossil fuels. 


In a September analysis of CARICOM (an IGO containing all sovereign Caribbean nations, aside from Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and multiple constituent states) by the Atlantic Council, the numbers are clear; apart from the three countries with significant petroleum prospects (Suriname, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago), most islands in the Caribbean rely more than 80% on fossil fuel imports. This reliance has allowed the region to have massive exposure to global energy markets and left it vulnerable to fluctuating energy prices. Including the increased costs associated with shipping to a relatively isolated part of the world, many Caribbean states deal with energy prices almost triple than that of the United States, which has significant impacts; a 2016 IMF working paper highlights high energy costs as being a key contributor to dampening economic growth and reducing the region’s competitiveness on the global stage.



Trouble in Paradise

With the heavy costs associated with reliance on the global fossil fuel industry, and the promise of stability associated with energy independence, you may be asking yourself “Why aren’t things changing?” Although conventional renewable technology has advanced considerably in recent decades, Caribbean states face unique obstacles towards decarbonizing their energy grids.


All the countries in the Caribbean are located in areas with considerable amounts of sunshine and close to the open-sea. This, on paper, makes the region a strong candidate for investment into renewable projects. However, conventional wind and solar equipment is also vulnerable to damage from extreme weather events (which are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change) in this part of the world, making investments in these technologies too risky for public and private entities alike. Additionally, when considering intermittent sources like solar and wind, having access to a large geographical area is a major benefit; mitigating poor performance in some regions with better conditions elsewhere in the grid, an impact demonstrated in this Nature paper. For the small island nations in the Caribbean, which have much smaller footprints, this benefit can barely be leveraged.


Some nations, such as the aforementioned Suriname and Belize, benefit from being located on the mainland, where biofuel supply chains are more easily accessible and larger sources of hydropower can be found or created via pumped storage, allowing them to diversify their energy mix with consistent sources of renewable energy. However, for a majority of the islanded Caribbean, importing wood or harvesting a limited native supply does not ease cost or energy dependency concerns. Meanwhile, the lack of space and of considerable surface water runoff from precipitation (due to smaller island footprints) restrict most hydro projects to smaller river installations, which can also fluctuate considerably between wet and dry seasons on the islands.


With these barriers in place impeding solar, wind, biofuels, and hydropower from replacing fossil fuels as a primary energy source, what will?


Look Deeper

In the core of our planet lives a core of solid iron, surrounded by miles of hot magma and molten rock. Due to the continuous radioactive decay of particles within the core, the inside of the Earth gets very hot (almost 6,000 degrees Celsius!). As the heat radiates out from the core, the thermal energy spreads through the layers of the planet, keeping temperatures stable as subterranean rock and water absorb energy from below. 



For centuries, civilizations have used heat from the Earth as a source of thermal energy, from the use of hot springs in ancient American, European, and Asian civilizations, to modern geo-exchange heating systems that use shallow boreholes (less than 300 metres deep) and heat pumps to capture thermal energy from below the surface to heat our buildings (like this project underway at the University of Toronto). However, deeper into the Earth, sources of hot steam can be found thousands of metres below the surface, which can be captured using wells to turn turbines and produce clean electricity, before being sent back into the Earth to be “reheated.” And despite high capital costs, geothermal projects shine due to their high capacity factors, as the steam cycle can run almost indefinitely, making the levelized cost of energy quite competitive when comparing its annual energy output with conventional renewable installations with the same peak capacity.


Source: CSIS

But what does it all mean for the Caribbean? Unlike conventional renewable technologies, the island characteristic becomes a strength, not a weakness with geothermal power, and as a source of reliable, renewable, and clean electricity, geothermal power plants have an opportunity to make a major impact on energy security.


The region is located where the Caribbean tectonic plate meets the North American and South American plates. As a result, the area is a hotbed for geothermal activity, with multiple volcanoes in the region and active magmatic heat sources beneath most of the islands. This activity is mostly concentrated in the Eastern Caribbean, with CARICOM estimating a combined geothermal power potential at over 6 GW across the region. And although regional access to local power sources will need to be improved considerably, the potential capacity could be worth the effort; large enough to meet the combined average peak demand of the two largest economies in the area, the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago.




However, due to exploratory analysis/drilling shifting ~15% of projects costs upfront and at-risk, and the small power demand in the islands not leveraging economies of scale that can improve costs for larger capacity projects, capital costs and investment risks may be barriers for adoption in the region. And although collaboration at a regional and international level can bridge the financing gaps required to deliver geothermal power, petroleum interests may create further obstacles. The largest economy in CARICOM is Trinidad and Tobago, a country with 40% of its GDP and 70% of its exports tied to its oil and gas industry (a 2023 quote from their energy minister stated “...we will continue to work on our hydrocarbon-based economy until the last (drop of) oil comes out of the ground and until the last gas is out of the ground.”)


Despite this, there have already been calls from other energy leaders in the Caribbean for Trinidad to become a leader in the geothermal drilling space, as it can leverage over a century of petroleum drilling expertise to improve regional supply chains, and diversify its own economy (comments supported by lead trade representatives for the Trinidadian trade sector).  Additionally, with geothermal projects and exploration already underway in the French and British territories of Guadeloupe and Montserrat, and with growing collaboration across the public and private sector, the geothermal power industry in the Caribbean is quickly accelerating with over US$40 million funding exploratory work in Dominica, St. Lucia, and St. Kitts and Nevis.


Will the Caribbean become the Iceland of the south, another island that has already leveraged its high volcanic activity to heat and/or power over 90% of its homes? Only time will tell, but with CARICOM slowly falling behind on renewable energy targets, world events continuously fluctuating energy prices, and petroleum producing countries like Trinidad, Suriname, and Guyana looking down the barrel of a potential fossil-fuel-free economy, it may be the right idea.


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