
“Among the certainties of life, we count change, taxes, death… and energy use.” While the inevitability of energy use is an established truth, a Decarb Digest rendition of the famous proverb is a fitting introduction to this week’s piece, in which we unravel telling realities of Africa’s hydropower potential.
Energy Today
Whether we wash clothes, cook meals, turn the living room lights off, or read the latest Decarb Digest articles on our technological devices, we solicit our energy sources—either in energy-saving or energy-dispensing capabilities. Although said examples of daily activities particularly hold true in urban developed cities, reliance on energy use is global. For example, energy input is required for all stages of agricultural production, including but not limited to, machinery use, cultivation, and irrigation systems. Agriculture is an economic vehicle that has been consistently used to spur rural and urban development in both developed and developing countries. Therefore, questions pertaining to energy access, energy distribution, energy transformation, and energy sustainability are increasingly relevant to all types of stakeholders, including you—dear consumer of the Decarb Digest—as they invite, at the very minimum, some forward-thinking.
Some of the evidence has been favourable. China, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, and the United States are among the countries that have pioneered global investments in renewable energies. The Paris Agreement symbolized a global commitment to low-carbon investments and the phasing-out of fossil fuels, and endorsed narratives that promote an upscaling of renewables and energy efficiency. Most recently, a July 2022 report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) stated that “almost two-thirds or 163 gigawatts (GW) of newly-installed renewable power in 2021 had lower costs than the world’s cheapest coal-fired option in the G20.” That said, renewable sources of power generation now possess an economic viability and a cost-competitiveness that reshuffles the global energy landscape. Added to that, the unprecedented surge in European fossil gas prices and the overall volatility in fossil fuel prices and imports further confirms renewable energy as a suitable alternative to fossil fuel-derived energy.

Hydropower in Africa: Understanding the Landscape
When it comes to choosing a world region as a case study to address energy questions, the world is our canvas. However, shedding light on Africa’s hydropower potential gives us the right amount of energy to touch on the continent’s hydropower resources, as well as potential obstacles to hydropower development. And yes, pun intended.
Firstly, Africa’s population is expected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%. The correlation between population growth and energy use is not a complex science; as population growth increases, energy demand increases.

Energy Demand by Sub-Industry, million terajoules
Secondly, we’ve already established that renewable energy’s popularity has been brewing in recent years, coupled with the relegation of oil and gas—albeit partial—to secondary status. However, according to the graphic below, the increase in both energy demand and clean energy investment has not been sufficient to paralyze the growing number of populations without electricity and clean cooking. In fact, both indicators convey that as the African population grows, so does the number of its inhabitants without electricity and clean cooking.

Africa’s share in selected global energy indicators and key population indicators (2010 - 2021)
Thirdly, the existing hydropower infrastructure in Africa is abundant enough to promise adequate and sustainable energy levels across the continent. Endowed with impressive water systems courtesy of the Congo, Niger, and Nile Rivers, among many other water sources, the continent hopes to imagine a future reliance on hydroelectric energy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with a capacity of 6450 megawatts (MW) and a reservoir of approximately 63 billion m3 of water, is certainly an able instrument in that respect, with the potential to be the seventh largest hydropower plant in the world post-construction. Hydropower plants are scattered across African subregions, with the Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique (2070 MW), the Inga Dams in the Democratic Republic of Congo (1775 MW), and the Akosombo Dam in Ghana (1020 MW), to name a few. It is important to note that several other African hydropower projects are pending, including the Grand Inga project that is estimated to cost approximately USD 80 billion, which would become the largest power station in the world with a capacity of up to 70 GW. However, a 2021 report published by the International Hydropower Association (IHA) shared Africa’s installed hydropower capacity, detailed in the graphic below.

The need, the demand, and better yet, the urgency for hydropower generation in Africa is undeniable. Yet, the pace at which we develop hydropower infrastructure sabotages the continent’s true hydropower potential, all while pressures to improve energy access and distribution are mounting.
Obstacles to Hydropower Development in Africa: A Narrowed Focus
All factors limiting Africa’s hydropower development deserve mention, ranging from energy colonialism to climate financing, among many others. However, considering that your morning beverage is dangerously close to a refill, this piece will purposely focus on just two factors that shorten the ceiling for hydropower potential: climate change and geopolitics.
Africa’s well-known vulnerability to climate change effects can pose a significant challenge to hydropower generation. Southern African countries are projected to experience a drier climate with frequent incidences of low precipitation, and East African countries are predicted to experience a wetter climate with more frequent and heavy rainfall. Consequently, climate variability will inevitably affect African countries in dramatically different ways. According to IEA’s report on the Climate Impacts on Africa’s Hydropower, Africa’s hydropower capacity factor in Morocco, Zambia, Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Mozambique are “projected to decline considerably, while the decrease would be offset by an increase in the hydropower capacity of the Nile basin countries, notably Egypt, Sudan and Kenya.”
Said climate anomalies exacerbate the continent’s low adaptive capacity to develop hydropower infrastructure. For instance, Zambia was severely affected by hydropower shortages, which in turn disrupted the productivity of several industries that underpin the country’s economic activity, namely agriculture and mining. In 2016, a deficit of approximately 600 MW against demand called for urgent and costly imports from the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) region. Therefore, countries that find themselves in the same situation as Zambia did in 2016 will have to adopt tailored solutions to accommodate for uneven distribution of climate impacts. However, the root of the issue remains that developing climate resilience systems with hydropower is a double-edged sword that can further plunge these countries in a state of precarity.
Geopolitics is another closely-connected obstacle. The SAPP is proof of the importance of Intra-African collaboration regarding the provision and distribution of energy. The mere potential of African hydropower dams allude to a necessary degree of collaboration among African countries, as many of these dams have the potential to provide power that transcends national borders. However, not all countries can count on sub-regional networks for assistance. The very GERD mentioned earlier in this piece is not only an impressive source of energy; it is also a major source of conflict between Egypt and Sudan, the downstream states, on the one hand, and Ethiopia as the upstream riparian on the other hand. Ethiopia, whose highlands supply approximately 85% of the water flowing into the River Nile, has long argued for its right to use hydroelectricity to address widespread poverty. Egypt, due to its dependence on the River Nile for household and commercial uses, regards the GERD project as a threat to water security.
The development of resilient systems and infrastructure, as well as intra-continental collaboration, are pivotal to Africa’s hope to reach its hydropower potential. However, the insightful takeaway lies in the mazes that Africa must navigate to reap the benefits of its hydropower potential. That said, the idea that hydropower, a certified agent of sustainable change, can still prove to be detrimental in the short-term to Africa should not discourage its ambitions to develop its renewables. On the contrary, it is a vibrant call for all avenues of assistance to measure up to Africa’s mountainous task. All types of stakeholders in their respective capacities, including you—dear reader of the Decarb Digest—are called upon to disentangle the complex energy issues we are confronted with so that we refrain from adding fuel to fire, and ensure we find light at the end of the tunnel.
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