A monumental task that cannot be solved alone

Source: Chris Leipelt
With the COVID-19 pandemic behind us, normalcy has returned to our daily lives. While many industries are returning to business as usual, aviation has seen one of the most dramatic rebounds as travel restrictions worldwide continue to be lifted. After experiencing “the worst year in history for air travel demand,” international air travel has rebounded to 88% of 2019 levels since March 2023 and domestic travel reached 98.9%. It is expected that air travel will continue to increase as travel demands surge, particularly in Asia and America where travel demands rose 283% and 72%, respectively, compared to March 2022 levels. While the rebound in travel is certainly good news for the industry, it has also brought back a controversial practice of ghost flights.
Ghost flights are flights that airlines operate with low to zero passengers to fulfill contractual obligations in order to maintain their coveted airport slots. Airport slots are permission given to airlines by airports to grant specific landing and take-off times. These slots are hard to come by, especially in busy international airports, such as London Heathrow Airport which sees an average of 1300 flights a day. To give you some perspective on the demand for these slots, in 2016 Kenya Airways sold their coveted morning slot at London Heathrow to Oman Airways for a staggering $75 million—an astronomical price for a two-hour time slot. While this is an exceptional case, it is common for airport slots to go for millions of dollars, and for airlines to keep these slots, they must utilize these slots regardless of whether they can fill them or not, which is known as the “use it or lose it” rule. The “use it or lose it” rule is an 80/20 split where airlines need to utilize 80% of their allocated airport slot every year or else it will be revoked. While this split was reduced to zero during the pandemic, it has since rebounded to a 75/25 split.
Even with the revised splits, this has forced airlines around the world to operate near empty or empty flights to maintain their slots. It was reported in 2022 that the German carrier Lufthansa operated 18,000 empty flights during the winter months of 2021 to maintain their airport slots, with their subsidiary Brussel Airlines operating 3000 ghost flights in the same period. Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr expressed his frustration stating that the 18,000 empty flights were “unnecessary.” This sentiment was echoed by Georges Gilkinet, Belgium’s mobility minister, who called these flights “environmental, economic, and social nonsense.”
As you could imagine, ghost flights are extremely wasteful and environmentally unsustainable. The global aviation industry accounts for around 2.4% of CO2 emissions while the secondary emissions including non-CO2 emissions add up to 5% of global greenhouse emissions. While there are tangible efforts being made within the industry to lower its carbon footprint through sustainable fuels, more efficient engines, and composite airframes, these efforts are not currently sufficient to offset the growing demand for air travel. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reported that 4.5 billion people flew on more than 38 million flights; it is expected that passenger volume will recover to 2019 figures by 2024 and projections from the Airports Council International (ACI) predict that passenger volume could reach north of 19 billion people by 2041.

Source: BBC
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced in 2021 the aviation industry’s plan to become net zero by 2050. The IATA has released their plans on how the industry aims to reach this goal through a mixture of implementing new technologies, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and carbon offsets. While these ambitions and changes are welcome, the technological feasibility of electric or hydrogen planes is still years away, and economically viable SAFs are still not widely available. Despite current efforts and measures, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that the industry is projected to miss their 2050 net zero target. Given that current efforts are not enough to meet the industry’s sustainability ambitions, the industry needs to find ways to curb its carbon emissions in any way it can to meet its net-zero ambitions. While the number of ghost flights globally pales in comparison to the number of commercial flights, eliminating them could help make a tangible dent in the industry’s yearly carbon emissions.
The exact number of ghost flights globally is not explicitly available, however, Greenpeace estimates that there are over 100,000 ghost flights operating in Europe alone, with more reports emerging as airlines such as Qatar Airways sometimes fly near empty flights on a daily basis from Doha to Melbourne and Adelaide—a distance of more than 11,000 km. As there are many different types of aircraft in operation, it is difficult to get an exact figure of the carbon emissions from these ghost flights; however, it is estimated that the 100,000 annual ghost flights in Europe alone contribute roughly 2.1 million tonnes of CO2 emissions or the equivalent of the yearly emissions of 1.4 million medium-sized vehicles. While 2.1 million tonnes of CO2 emissions is a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly 800 million tonnes the industry generates on a yearly basis, given that the industry as a whole is far from meeting its sustainability targets, every effort is crucial to help close the gap.
Decarbonizing the aviation industry is a monumental task and will require governments and regulators to make unpopular choices. Innovations and new-generation aircraft can only do so much to curb the massive carbon emissions from the industry. In order to see tangible progress, technological innovations need to be paired with robust policies to ensure consistent reductions in emissions. For example, in May of this year, France passed a bill that bans short-haul domestic flights within the country. The bill stipulates that any journey that is possible under two and a half hours by train cannot be flown. As a result, France is rapidly expanding its already extensive rail network to accommodate for increased demand with more than 222 km of high-speed rail being constructed across the country. This approach has proven to be successful as demonstrated in Italy where the proliferation of high-speed rail has contributed to the collapse of Italy’s national airline Alitalia in October of 2021. While it is true that such policies are possible in Europe where quality alternative transportation is abundant, it also shows that if comparable alternatives are available, people will choose rail over flying.
One might argue that such policies are only possible in Europe and Asia due to their extensive high-speed rail networks, but such feats are also possible in North America. Take the Amtrak Acela, the only high-speed rail in the North American continent. The Acela serves the Northeast Megalopolis between Boston and Washington DC, home to more than 50 million people. Since the launch of the Acela service in 2000, it has gained significant popularity. Before the pandemic, the Acela service dominated the combined air-rail market in the Northeast corridor with up to 70% market share. As travel resumed, the Acela service experienced nearly a 140% ridership increase compared to 2021 levels. Despite these promising figures, Acela’s potential is not fully realized due to infrastructure limitations and a lack of funding. Even in its current state, with all its limitations, the Acela is proving to be a popular alternative to flying. In order to fully realize the potential of Acela, more funding is needed to improve infrastructure and increase capacity, which will not only help reduce emissions from flights but also stimulate economic activity in regions where the trains operate.
You may be thinking this article has been rather harsh on the aviation industry, and for the most part, you would be right. However, as harsh as I was, I understand in today’s society we simply cannot function without commercial aviation. It has shaped the world we live in and has become a vital pillar in the global economic system, responsible for moving billions of people and delivering vital goods to far-flung destinations. That is to say, the industry is far from perfect and needs to change in order to ease its impact on our changing climate. As mentioned, decarbonizing the aviation industry is a monumental task; however, small efforts, moving to abolish ghost flights, banning short-haul flights, and introducing alternative transportation to fill the gaps might be a tall order for the industry, but it is absolutely necessary.
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